Adequately aware that doing an article of this nature is detrimental and untimely , the author has chosen to ride on scientific inferences to explain the findings of his study. The biggest oxymoron of an alliance in Kenya today is the division of labour pursuant to per capita contribution.
Musalia Mudavadi is currently the convener of an outfit tagged , National Super Alliance (NASA) whereas his like minded surrogates like Raila Odinga ,Kalonzo Musyoka and the ‘tricky’ Gideon Moi are just but riders. NASA could work for Raila and not Mudavadi regardless of the inventor’s interest. Mudavadi is seeking an alliance whereby he anchors his purpose on real labour division. He his aware that he must either be fixed as the flag bearer or a running mate. That is out of mind and out of sight scientifically.
Going by statistics , Raila Odinga is the obvious choice for the alliance in the position of a flag bearer. Some commentators would view Raila as an incorrigible character in the arrangement but then there is no option. Odinga must come first.
In the forthcoming arrangement , Kalonzo must remain Odinga’s running going by scientific data. Currently , Kalonzo has a constituency ( Eastern block) whose total votes amount to 1.2 million. Understand and underscore the fact that those are the Kamba votes. Mudavadi on the other hand has a drop in the ocean .He carries with him only 800 000 votes from his home ( Vihiga) and supplementary votes from other domains of Western province. From an orthogonal and isometric view , Raila Odinga can access 68% of Western votes by himself .That means Mudavadi is a rider.
If Kalonzo is dropped and eventually he escapes to solitude or seeks another arrangement , Raila Odinga will not receive the 1.2 Eastern votes. The push and pull factor here is what is more important than the other. Kalonzo carries more whereas Mudavadi carries less. The choice of running mate must be guided by that.
The Mudavadi factor is always tricky and full of consistent blame game. A narrative was established in 2008 that Raila was to pick Ruto has the deputy prime minister just to encourage the rich voting axis of Rift valley where he got a plethora of votes. That’s history .When Ruto left , the blame took a dimension that involved the reward of Mudavadi instead of Ruto.
Today , Uhuru and Ruto’s backyards have a summative 6 million voters whereas Raila’s Western , Nyanza and coast posses 5 million. The 5 million is free from Kalonzo’s 1.2 .In conclusion , the original 5 million of Raila plus 1.2 million of Kalonzo brings it to 6.2 Million .That is based on tribal arrangement of the principals before they hunt the rest. So far Mudavadi’s 800 000 votes will not seal the deal. The original 5 million of Raila plus 800 000 of Mudavadi will not solve the equation however , Kalonzo’s will.
Kenyan votes are determined by the following tribes : kikiyu ,Luhya ,kalenjin, luo ,Kamba and Kisii.
If Raila loses Kalonzo as a running and replaces him with Mudavadi then the narrative will be the same , ” tungekuwa na Kalonzo. ………..tungewika. ” It will be too late.
By all rights Kalonzo deserves the position of a running mate in the new arrangement.