Chances of Mariga winning in Kibera are almost zero. Intelligence reports indicates that the footballer will emerge third. The seat will be won by Imran Okoth who is a brother to the late Ken Okoth,he will closely be followed by former Raila ally Eliud Owalo.
ODM got it right from nominations where they conducted without interference. Jubilee was waiting for Raila to mess during nominations so as to capture the seat but by giving the ticket to Imran, they complicated matters for the ruling party.
Another hindrance to Mariga is the fact that Uhuru is fully behind him which goes against the spirit of the handshake. Kibra voters will cast votes for Imran as a protest against Uhuru.
The worst thing is that Mariga has a negative image among voters, he is not seen as one of them. One thing everyone knows is that he registered as a voter on 31 August 2019 ,he has never voted before, implying that his only interest is to win the seat and not for the benefit of the residents.In addition, he is perceived as Ruto’s project, which doesn’t augur well for Kibra residents. If it’s Uhuru who fronted the footballer, he could have given Imran a run for his money.
According to our projections, Imran will get 75% of the votes,the rest will be divided amongst the remaining aspirants.