Fred Matiangi will be one of the presidential candidates in 2027. He will be contesting against President William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka. Matiangi is fronted by former President Uhuru Kenyatta. According to Daily Nation,Uhuru had a meeting with hundreds of Gusii leaders in December at Karen. They all agreed to rally behind the former Interior CS. But what are the chances of Matiangi winning the presidency in 2027?
Well,if Fred contests against Ruto and Kalonzo,he will definitely be second or third. In case he becomes second and nobody gets to 50% plus 1 vote,there will be a rerun. Kalonzo will then support Matiangi who will emerge the winner of the 2027 race.
However,it is going to be tricky if there will be 3 candidates. The Kikuyu votes will be split which will give Ruto a chance to win in round one. But if Kalonzo accepts to support Matiangi,all the kikuyu,Kisii,Kamba will support Matiangi. As you know,GEMA alone has over 5 million votes. In this case,Ruto may not win—Matiangi will win round 1.
Here are the votes Matiangi is expected to get in 2027:
Kisii—1.8 million
GEMA—5 million
Kamba—1.5 million
Gen Z—1.5 million
Other regions—1.5 million
He will get at least 9 million votes and it will be difficult for Ruto to win.
Ruto is only relying on Raila’s support to win 2027, which is not guaranteed. In case Raila doesn’t win the AU Chairmanship post, he will return to Kenya and contest. Ruto will only remain with Kalenjin votes. In this case, Ruto will become distant 3rd or 4th in 2027.
Matiangi obstacles
One of the obstacles facing Matiangi is the Yala bodies which were dumped there during his tenure as the Interior CS. You already see Ruto supporters using this incident to campaign against Matiangi.
He comes from a small community
Kisii votes are not many, they are less than 2 million. Larger communities would fee that they are doing him a favour and become hesitant to vote for him.
He is a dictator
Kenyans say that Matiangi is a dictator, they fear him. But there are those saying that he is a progressive dictator.
Finances
Matiangi is not among the richest Kenyans. 2027 elections will be the most expensive, he needs more than Ksh15 billion for campaigns, which is why he is relying on Uhuru and other Mount Kenya billionaires to support him.
If he doesn’t get the finances, he will definitely not be able to campaign effectively.