Yesterday, I witnessed President WSR attempting to celebrate the “success” of his UDA/Broad-Based Alliance in the just concluded byelections. But as someone who has been in the trenches of Kenyan politics for years, I saw something different: a leader grasping at illusions, desperately trying to project strength while the ground beneath him shifts.
Between 2018 and February 2022, I served as an adviser to the current President when he was Deputy President. I headed operations in numerous byelections Juja, Msambweni, Bonchari, Kabuchai, Matungu, Wajir, and others. Those contests were the real litmus tests, showing which regions were trending toward us in the lead-up to the 2022 general elections. Even against formidable odds,WSR wielding state machinery and resources,we either won or performed exceptionally, building the momentum that propelled us to victory.
The recent byelections, however, tell a very different story. While WSR rushed to highlight selective victories, the facts speak clearly:
Out of 27 byelections, the opposition captured 19 seats, while UDA/Broad-Based Alliance took 8.
The only two areas where WSR improved vote share were Magarini(if broad based holds) and Baringo where the margin increased from 63% in 2022 to 81% in the byelection,after hoodwinking Gideon Moi. Everywhere else, margins shrank significantly.
Take Mbeere North. Here, WSR is celebrating what is essentially a hollow victory. In 2022, the combined vote for the DP-supported candidates was 34,000, against just 2,000 for the opposition. Fast-forward to the byelections: despite unprecedented state intervention,including diverted government projects, security deployments, relief aid manipulation, agent bribery, and close to Ksh. 300M reportedly used to sway voters,the UDA candidate barely eked out a win with 15,800 votes, while the opposition tallied 15,400. If this is strength, it is painfully fragile.
Similarly, in Malava, the numbers tell a cautionary tale for WSR. Despite deploying county machinery, co-opting opposition candidates into state positions, orchestrating heavy security presence, and funneling enormous resources, UDA edged out the opposition by less than 1,000 votes. This is not dominance,it is vulnerability dressed as victory.
WSR’s so-called Western Kenya strongman, Moses Wetangula, faced humiliating defeats, even in his home ward, despite deploying intimidation, bribery, and coercion. Across other contested areas, WSR relied on looted public funds – SHA allocations, school capitation, fuel levies,to finance electoral theatrics. And yet, opposition candidates, often financially outmatched, still prevailed with credible margins.
Looking ahead to 2027, the situation will be even more stark. WSR will not have unlimited state resources to concentrate on targeted constituencies. Roads, electricity, relief aid, ambassadorial appointments, vehicle handouts, and security deployments tools used to tilt the scales,will be impossible to replicate nationwide. Every stronghold will need genuine political work. The theater of manipulation that defines these byelections will not scale, and the electorate will see through it.
In this context, the just concluded byelections are not a setback they are a resounding affirmation that the Wantam movement is steady, disciplined, and unstoppable. Despite intimidation and attempts at manipulation, our vision resonates, our candidates persevere, and the people’s choice prevails.
All we need as Kenyans to get this oppressive regime out of power,is an organized opposition team that has a well coordinated octopus kind of approach in their campaigns, well researched and consistent messaging and ofcourse fearlessness.
I would also want to acknowledge the IEBC for its commitment to upholding electoral integrity under extreme pressure. Their efforts ensured that, even amid forceful interference, democracy found its voice.
