There are numerous reasons why Ruto will not become president in 2022 but one reason stands out.If indeed there is a rift between the DP and the president, then it will be impossible for Ruto to become president regardless of how aggressive he campaigns for the seat.
One factor that you will not ignore is that the Kikuyu vote will determine who will be president in 2022.Assuming that Ruto continues with his political innuendos, public condemnation of the handshake and outright enmity with some Kikuyu politicians, he automatically loses sizeable number of voters from Central Kenya.
I am now assuming that Ruto will contest against Raila in 2022 and there will not be any serious competitor for the two. As of today Raila has not lost his support base, same to Ruto.If you remove Central Kenya votes, Raila will carry the day—because Ruto’s Rift Valley votes are a meager 3 million, that’s if you include Kikuyu votes. Raila’s votes will be more than 5 million.
Even if Uhuru supports Ruto in 2022, there is no way Central Kenya turnout will exceed 70%, these guys turn out in large numbers when their own is contesting. Whether you like it or not,a significant number of Kikuyu voters will vote for Raila and it’s because of history which is against Ruto.
Forget about the politicians Ruto is acquiring from NASA allied parties, they have almost zero influence on their supporters. When 2022 approaches, they bidding will be higher and Ruto may not be able to sustain their budget, they will drop him one by one.
Above all,what will make Ruto the president is the Kikuyu votes,if half decide to vote for Raila,then the DP will be relegated to the position of opposition leader.