If Raila and Ruto’s names will be on the ballot box in 2022, statistics show that Raila will beat Ruto before saa tatu.Assuming Kalonzo and Mudavadi will not contest,the statistics will be like this:
| REGION | RAILA ODINGA | WILLIAM RUTO |
| NAIROBI | 1,500,000 | 500,000 |
| RIFT VALLEY | 800,000 | 3,000,000 |
| NYANZA | 2,500,000 | 100,000 |
| COAST | 1000,000 | 250,000 |
| NORTH EASTERN | 400,000 | 350,000 |
| WESTERN | 1,200,000 | 150,000 |
| CENTRAL | 1000,000 | 1,700,000 |
| EASTERN | 1,900,000 | 600,000 |
| TOTAL | 10,300,000 | 6,650,000 |
From the statistics above it’s clear Raila Odinga will defeat Ruto by almost 5 million votes.If Kalonzo and Mudavadi decide to back Ruto,then Raila will have to struggle to maintain the lead.What is evident is that the turnout on Central Kenya will be low because their own will not be contesting.Ruto is banking on votes from Central,Rift Valley and Western but based on historical voting patterns, no matter what Raila will beat Ruto in Western and share votes in Central Kenya
