Why Raila Lost To Ruto—he made these mistakes


As of two days ago, the National Security Council had communicated to all parties the impending outcome. These things were verifiable from the get-go, fortunately.

They updated the security classes for Rigathi and WSR as per protocol and the elite Presidential Guard immediately bolstered the President-Elect.

We started getting messages from Azimio insiders giving us cautious congratulations

 but asking, “how did you guys do it?”

The public was not yet aware, though common sense meant that one should have followed up on the public information on the IEBC portal which we used to formulate our tallies.

The US cables had already been received internally and they had already issued an advisory against Baba’s home county because they knew that this election had been lost by the state. Baba was made aware.

But Baba was gagged. For the first time, he approached an election while in government and its support. He was Moi in 97. He was Kibaki in 2007. He was Uhuru In 2017. His stature as a symbol of state oppression had been eroded by that one fact and he could not defend a position that someone who had been locked out of the comforts of the state could ‘rig’ him out.

Many Azimionites always felt safe, that they would never need to worry about a loss. They have erroneously believed that Baba has always been rigged out, without regard to the fact that Baba has always been a political Wheeler Dealer who has made personal gains through ‘political protest’. To achieve that, he has had to have an absolute hold on the minds and conscience of his support base. This is the reason why all other leaders have faced rebellion even in their tribes and revolted. In particular, Kalenjins against Moi and Kikuyus against Kenyatta. Moi still has Kalenjin supporters, and Kenyatta still has Kikuyu supporters, but as democracy has it, they’re now in the minority. Kambas, luhys, Mijikenda, Borana etc have all become democratic within their enclaves… Even in Kisii, a favourite ODM base have produced many elected leaders from all other national parties.

This time, Baba had scored an own goal. The one thing, according to Oburu Odinga, that they lacked was the system.

Now they had it.

But his people forgot to sell Baba well beyond their comfort zones. WSR bravely went to baba’s strongholds to chip votes. He knew there was little he could do in Kilifi and Kajiado to sway absolute victories… But he wanted presidential votes from them however little. Ha haba na haba hujaza kibaba.

Baba’s battalion of marketers like Atwoli popularized phrases such as ‘Kateni miti’ and  ‘Ruto will never be president’ at their disadvantage, their supporters popularized it without understanding its balkanization effect and inability to win over souls. They were the evangelists that told all sinners to go to hell; they didn’t bother to ask them to get saved. And like gladiator spectators in ancient Rome gleefully demanding decapitation and blood, they taunted.

But they became complacent. They never bothered to win over souls.

We knew Kalonzo’s ego wouldn’t let him join Ruto, but Ruto went to Kitui severally including the last days to tell them he was open to working with him. He didn’t do it for Kalonzo, he did it for the few undecideds and wiper voters. It paid dividends. It’s about numbers, however little.

We understood the complacency in Azimio. We sometimes posted “deliberately inaccurate” content to bait them to believe we were planless and uninformed. Oh, they jumped on it. For example, as we posted provisional results, we decided to post unconfirmed and inaccurate wins. Azimio loved it. They swallowed the bait. They knew all our numbers were cooked. They laughed, they chided us. They relaxed. They came to Bomas with delusions of grandeur. What they didn’t know was we were marinating them for shock therapy. We baited them to lose their cool and drop their guard. And you all saw how it went. They couldn’t believe it. They walked into Bomas confident that they were about to win. They had never bothered to do independent tallies nor to confirm the votes. They had this trust that the system would have a last-minute magic trick.

Comes in Charera and co. She had been announcing results herself up to the last day using the same portal. But as the new commissioners were recently appointed by Uhuru, they were called and asked to dissent. They had a debt to pay.  They went to work ready to uphold their mandate as commissioners, but that one call came. And she had to bend, and unfortunately, destroy her stature.

Baba is figuring out a way to respond, because he has been let down, by his handshake. He wasn’t allowed to manage his campaign. He was given a weak running mate. He believed in an impotent system. His voters relaxed. They took pride in their numbers, they forgot to solicit votes from beyond.

Baba has been confronted with facts from very credible intelligence sources including his favourite foreign allies. He has a statesman position to defend, yet Uhuru and Murathe would want to go down the drain with him.

Baba is quiet because he wants to get himself back.

A run-off, repeat or appeal would bury his legacy into the abyss. He is at a better standing nationally and internationally now, and as WSR says, a government for all means Baba’ounsel is required. We mean Baba, not his Jubilee baggage.