According to the 2019 Census, there is a total of 2,780,502 Somali population in Kenya. Out of this number,1.6 million Somalis are registered to vote. There has been huge influx of Somalis from 2020 where most of them settle in Eastleigh and Northern Kenya. President Ruto has promised to give Ids to Somalis without scrutiny. More than 3 million Somalis are expected to be registered in the next two years as Kenyan citizens. If 50% of them take IDs, there will be at least 3 million registered voters of Somali origin in Kenya who will probably vote for Ruto.
President Ruto is targeting Somali votes, which is why he wants them to register in large numbers. He is also banking on Raila votes. However, Raila’s votes are not guaranteed—he might bolt out of the government any time. If Raila will not support Ruto, then opposition will win the presidency. The 3 million Somali votes plus 1.8 million votes from Rift Valley aren’t enough to give Ruto a second term.
