All along Raila Odinga supporters have thought that their man will win 2022 elections due to support from the government and deep state.But an expert in elections has come up with a formula to show that Ruto is ahead of Raila by far.
Here is the analysis:
Yes William Ruto has maintained the raw numbers Uhuru got in 2017. He has the Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Meru, Embu, Samburu and half of the Maasai votes..
That is basically intact.
1. Assuming Martha could get Raila 400k votes from Mt Kenya, the 1.4m difference will reduce to 1m
2. In Western however, Raila has lost the Maragoli and Bukusu votes to. Ruto. Let’s put that at a minimum of 400k…
What Raila gains in Mt Kenya, he lost in Western.
That brings difference back to 1.4m.
3. Nanok has snatched at least 150k votes that would have gone to Raila and given to Ruto…
The gap widens to 1.55m votes
4. Come to Ukambani, where Ruto will get at least 250k votes thanks to the fact that Kalonzo has been humiliated.
That brings the difference to 1.8m votes.
5. Then there is the Somali votes…Ruto picks 200k due to the fact that Raila stupidly supported the Bill that was meant to snatch money from their Counties.
With this, Ruto is ahead of Raila with at least 2m votes.
6. What about Coast? Ruto gets at least 500k votes because Raila supported the collapse of the Mombasa Economy.
That gives Ruto AT LEAST 2.5m votes more than Raila.
Whatever angle, Ruto beats Raila…
It’s why Uhuru’s friends are with Ruto. They know who’s forming the next government!
So to avoid unnecessary heartbreak, ignore the fake polls and accept the reality.