Here are predictions showing that Ruto will get over 56% of the total votes cast in 2022:
Someone, sent me a message on my messenger asking my truthful prediction of the election outcome in a fortnight or so….
Well,in my forecast this is what I have to say:
In the geography of presidential elections, political demography matter more than regions.
Among the most important predictors of Azimio vote in the upcoming election are its votes in the past two elections. These tend to be pretty consistent from their leaders and analysts.
They have been claiming that RAOs past three elections 44% outcome is intact and they only need 6% .WRONG.
RAOs western % hasbeen trimmed to below 50%.
RAOs Coastal support has been cut down to almost 50% .
RAOs Ukambani Vote has been reduced by around 35%
Those were his fanatical base.
His Nairobi base remains almost the same so is North Eastern.He has nkt gained in Nyanza,remains constant.
He gains about 18-20% in Mt.Kenya.
What does this mean to William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza.
That he retains his Rift Valley turf and gains a little more from the Turkanas and Luhyas living in the rift.
*He gains more from Western.
*Gains more from Coast.
*Gains more from Ukambani.
*Loses about 20% of Mt.Kenya.
The rest part of the country remains as it were in 2017.(Nyanza)
In my view William Ruto will win with about 56+%
Raila will not manage to retain his 44% but will drop to around 42%.
The gap will be too huge to oppose the election outcome.
Uhuru Kenyatta will try to negotiate with Ruto in private without RAO’s knowledge. Raila Odinga will try do the same from his end without UK knowledge.
Raila and his supporters will claim that they lost elections because of Uhuru’s support( they will say how unpopular he was) …on the other, Uhuru and his men kina Murathe will say RAO is beyond salvage they put in everything to grand raise him but he was as usual a hard sell to Kenyans and has been rejected once again.
Uhuru will be happy he will have helped bury the two communities belligerent attacks on each other for decades.
Fstforward, 1 year into William Ruto’s presidency,
The Luo community will be the greatest supporters of President Ruto and No, Ruto will not have handshake with RAO, but he will have retired leaving them as political orphansfor not mentoring young leaders unlike how Ruto has done.
Here is another dimension:
For the purpose of this exercise, we use the 2017 numbers.
1. You have said Ruto loses 20% in Central. That will mean Mount Kenya (including Nakuru, Laikipia). Total votes ~5.5 million. If Ruto loses 20%, that is 1.1 million votes.
2. Assume Raila loses 20% of Western (~1.8 million votes). That translates to losing 360,000.
3. Assume Raila loses 20% of Coast votes (1.5m vote). That’s 300k votes
4. Assume Raila loses 20% of Lower Eastern votes (1.5m votes). That’s 300k votes
So just on these regions (again the assumption you have made is that everywhere else, Ruto gains, he only loses Mt. Kenya), Raila’s net gain is 140k….
Which brings Ruto’s % to 53% (just by using most of your assumptions)…
Fact is, Mt. Kenya turned out big for this candidate in 2017 (average turn out was 85%) while national average was about 77%. Will Mt. Kenya do the same for Ruto?